Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Connecticut House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut House District 61
FusionProjected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (63%).
Mol is favored to win: Mol wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Mol (D)
63%
chance of winning
Zawistowski (R)
37%
- Average margin
- D+2.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (81%).
Mol is clearly favored to win: Mol wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Mol (D)
81%
chance of winning
Zawistowski (R)
19%
- Average margin
- D+8.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
James Mol
RepublicanIncumbent
Tami Zawistowski
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.01 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -18.68 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -18.68 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 23,539
- People per km²
- 139
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 45%of adults
- White 80%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 6%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
13,937 votes · R+18.8✓ Tami Zawistowski (R)59.4%
Michael Malloy (D)40.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
15,150 two-party votes · D+1.1 · D+2.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.6%
Donald Trump (R)49.4%
2022
10,670 votes · R+21.0✓ Tami Zawistowski (R)60.5%
Jim Irwin (D)39.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
13,386 votes · R+17.3✓ Tami Zawistowski (R)58.7%
Jack Henrie (D)41.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
15,336 two-party votes · D+6.2 · D+1.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.1%
Donald Trump (R)46.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
12,938 two-party votes · R+4.0 · R+6.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.0%