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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Connecticut › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Connecticut Auditor

Fusion

Scanlon is very likely to win: Scanlon wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Scanlon (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Tooker (R)
<1%
Average margin
D+26.9
80% of outcomes
D+19 to D+35
Partisan lean
D+16
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Scanlon is very likely to win: Scanlon wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.

Scanlon (D)
99%
chance of winning
Tooker (R)
1%
Average margin
D+28.2
80% of outcomes
D+15 to D+42
Partisan lean
D+16
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

D+26.9R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40
D+28.2R+60R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40D+60

How this race is decided

Fusion voting

Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Scanlon >99%Tooker <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Scanlon 99%Tooker 1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Connecticut state offices
+1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+26.4Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+26.2Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Connecticut andlook-alike placesD+28.3Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+26.9Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+28.2

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge1
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation0
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The state

Lean D+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+14.3D+12.1 vs. nation2020 presidentD+20.4D+15.9 vs. nation2024 presidentD+14.8D+16.3 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
3,624,508
Adults with a B.A.+
43%
White, no degree
35%of adults
  • White 62%
  • Hispanic 18%
  • Black 10%
  • Asian 5%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

1,728,971 two-party votes · D+14.8 · D+16.3 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.4%
Donald Trump (R)42.6%

2020 President Vote in this state

1,795,548 two-party votes · D+20.4 · D+15.9 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)60.2%
Donald Trump (R)39.8%

2016 President Vote in this state

1,570,787 two-party votes · D+14.3 · D+12.1 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)57.1%
Donald Trump (R)42.9%

Also on the ballot in Connecticut

GovernorNed LamontRyan Fazio99%Dem.99%Dem.