Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Connecticut House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut House District 8
FusionProjected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (77%).
Lombard is favored to win: Lombard wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Lombard (D)
77%
chance of winning
Gifford (R)
23%
- Average margin
- D+5.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (74%).
Lombard is favored to win: Lombard wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Lombard (D)
74%
chance of winning
Gifford (R)
26%
- Average margin
- D+5.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Francis Lombard
Republican
William Gifford
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.33 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -18.4 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 17,626
- People per km²
- 76
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 42%
- White, no degree
- 53%of adults
- White 88%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
14,500 votes · R+18.3✓ Timothy Ackert (R)59.2%
Nancy Hammarstrom (D)40.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
14,536 two-party votes · D+1.5 · D+3.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.8%
Donald Trump (R)49.2%
2022
11,591 votes · R+19.7✓ Tim Ackert (R)59.8%
Mary Ann M Hansen (D)40.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
15,002 votes · R+21.7✓ Timothy Ackert (R)60.8%
Brenda Falusi (D)39.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
14,796 two-party votes · D+5.9 · D+1.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.0%
Donald Trump (R)47.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
12,662 two-party votes · R+2.7 · R+4.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.7%
Also on the ballot in Connecticut
Neighboring districts
HD-12Geoff Luxenberg—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-13Jason DoucetteBianca Stanescu>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-48Bob FernandezMark DeCaprioD flipD flip63%Dem.71%Dem. HD-49Susan JohnsonBrian Saucier>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-53Michelle CunninghamTammy NuccioD flipD flip76%Dem.91%Dem. HD-54Gregory Haddad—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-55Ellen PaulSteve WeirD flipD flip85%Dem.93%Dem.