Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Connecticut House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut House District 45
FusionLanoue is clearly favored to win: Lanoue wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Danieluk (D)
9%
chance of winning
Lanoue (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+10.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Lanoue is favored to win: Lanoue wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Danieluk (D)
21%
chance of winning
Lanoue (R)
79%
- Average margin
- R+7.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Matt Danieluk
RepublicanIncumbent
Brian Lanoue
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -10.69 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -10.69 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 26,020
- People per km²
- 79
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 63%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 2%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
13,166 votes · R+25.6✓ Brian L Lanoue (R)62.8%
Kayla Thompson (D)37.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
13,455 two-party votes · R+13.6 · R+12.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.8%
Kamala Harris (D)43.2%
2022
9,600 votes · R+25.8✓ Brian Lanoue (R)62.9%
Kayla Thompson (D)37.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
11,738 votes · R+16.2✓ Brian Lanoue (R)56.6%
Mark Deponte (D)40.8%
Daniel Reale (—)2.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
13,249 two-party votes · R+8.6 · R+13.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.3%
Joe Biden (D)45.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
11,193 two-party votes · R+18.5 · R+20.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.7%