Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Connecticut House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut House District 48
FusionProjected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (63%).
Fernandez is favored to win: Fernandez wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Fernandez (D)
63%
chance of winning
DeCaprio (R)
37%
- Average margin
- D+2.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (71%).
Fernandez is favored to win: Fernandez wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Fernandez (D)
71%
chance of winning
DeCaprio (R)
29%
- Average margin
- D+5.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Bob Fernandez
RepublicanIncumbent
Mark DeCaprio
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.04 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.41 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.41 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 27,061
- People per km²
- 84
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 44%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
14,699 votes · R+3.4✓ Mark Decaprio (R)51.1%
Christopher Rivers (D)47.7%
Lance Lusignan (—)1.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
14,862 two-party votes · D+0.8 · D+2.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.4%
Donald Trump (R)49.6%
2022
11,469 votes · R+3.8✓ Mark Decaprio (R)51.2%
Christopher Rivers (D)47.5%
Lance Lusignan (I)1.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
13,647 votes · D+6.7✓ Brian Smith (D)53.3%
Julie Shilosky (R)46.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
14,893 two-party votes · D+4.1 · R+0.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.0%
Donald Trump (R)48.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
12,633 two-party votes · R+7.7 · R+9.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.2%
Also on the ballot in Connecticut
Neighboring districts
HD-8Francis LombardWilliam GiffordD flipD flip77%Dem.74%Dem. HD-34Meghan RosenfeldMelissa ZiobronD flipD flip71%Dem.73%Dem. HD-37Nick MenapaceAnne Santoro>99%Dem.98%Dem. HD-47Marcus PalumboDoug Dubitsky88%Rep.72%Rep. HD-49Susan JohnsonBrian Saucier>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-55Ellen PaulSteve WeirD flipD flip85%Dem.93%Dem. HD-139Larry PembertonBrandon Sabbag99%Dem.96%Dem.