Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut Treasurer
FusionRussell is very likely to win: Russell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Russell (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Wilms (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+26.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+18 to D+34
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Russell is very likely to win: Russell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Russell (D)
99%
chance of winning
Wilms (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+28.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+15 to D+42
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
How this race is decided
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Erick Russell
Incumbent state treasurer
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Republican
Fred Wilms
Former state representative and Senior Vice President of Webster Bank
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.51 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -4.51 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The state
Lean D+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 3,624,508
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 43%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 62%
- Hispanic 18%
- Black 10%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
1,728,971 two-party votes · D+14.8 · D+16.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.4%
Donald Trump (R)42.6%
2022
1,244,372 votes · D+7.7✓ Erick Russell (D)52.4%
Harry Arora (R)44.9%
Jennifer Baldwin (OTH)2.0%
Joanna Laiscell (L)0.7%
2020 President Vote in this state
1,795,548 two-party votes · D+20.4 · D+15.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)60.2%
Donald Trump (R)39.8%
2018
1,356,435 votes · D+11.6✓ Shawn Wooden (D)55.2%
Thad Gray (R)43.7%
Jesse Brohinsky (L)1.1%
2016 President Vote in this state
1,570,787 two-party votes · D+14.3 · D+12.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)57.1%
Donald Trump (R)42.9%