Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Connecticut House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut House District 90
FusionProjected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (63%).
Fritz is favored to win: Fritz wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Fritz (D)
63%
chance of winning
Fishbein (R)
37%
- Average margin
- D+2.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (82%).
Fritz is clearly favored to win: Fritz wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Fritz (D)
82%
chance of winning
Fishbein (R)
18%
- Average margin
- D+8.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
David Fritz
RepublicanIncumbent
Craig Fishbein
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.51 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -9.02 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -9.02 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 26,957
- People per km²
- 256
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 2%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 2%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
13,752 votes · R+9.0✓ Craig Fishbein (R)54.5%
Rebecca Hyland (D)45.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
19,419 two-party votes · D+2.5 · D+4.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.3%
Donald Trump (R)48.7%
2022
11,110 votes · R+11.0✓ Craig C Fishbein (R)55.5%
Rebecca Hyland (D)44.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
14,103 votes · Even✓ Craig Fishbein (R)50.0%
Jim Jinks (D)50.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
15,582 two-party votes · D+2.7 · R+1.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.4%
Donald Trump (R)48.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
13,170 two-party votes · R+7.3 · R+9.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.3%
Also on the ballot in Connecticut
Neighboring districts
HD-33Brandon Chafee—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-82Michael Quinn—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-83Chad CardilloBob Ham96%Dem.91%Dem. HD-85Samuel CarmodyTom Laffin95%Dem.90%Dem. HD-86—Vincent Candelora>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-87Kathleen KimballDave YaccarinoFlip risk79%Rep.51%Rep. HD-100Kai Juanna BeltonSusan Manke>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-101John-Michael ParkerMary Ann Connelly>99%Dem.98%Dem. HD-103Liz LinehanJeff Weiss>99%Dem.99%Dem.