Democratic
Eileen Eady
Candidate for the Clark County School District Board of Trustees in 2024 and 2018
- Experience
- No elected office
Nevada › Nevada State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada Assembly District 4
Cole is favored to win: Cole wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Eady (D)
30%
chance of winning
Cole (R)
70%
- Average margin
- R+3.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Cole is favored to win: Cole wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.
Eady (D)
40%
chance of winning
Cole (R)
60%
- Average margin
- R+2.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- R+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Lisa Cole
Incumbent assembly member (2024-present)
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Nevada state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.36 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.35 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.35 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 81,160
- People per km²
- 1,528
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 46%
- Hispanic 26%
- Black 12%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
39,332 votes · R+8.7✓ Lisa Cole (R)54.4%
Ryan Hampton (D)45.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
40,224 two-party votes · R+8.3 · R+6.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.2%
Kamala Harris (D)45.8%
2022
25,248 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Richard McArthur (R)62.6%
Darby Lee Burns (L)37.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
41,554 votes · R+5.1✓ Richard McArthur (R)52.6%
Connie Munk (D)47.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
38,496 two-party votes · R+5.0 · R+9.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.5%
Joe Biden (D)47.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
29,737 two-party votes · R+5.3 · R+7.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.4%