DemocraticCandidate
Nevada › Nevada State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada Assembly District 9
Hank is clearly favored to win: Hank wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Hank (D)
89%
chance of winning
Orozco (R)
11%
- Average margin
- D+9.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hank is favored to win: Hank wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Hank (D)
76%
chance of winning
Orozco (R)
24%
- Average margin
- D+6.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticCandidate
Ryan Hampton
Nonprofit founder and nominee for 4th district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
RepublicanCandidate
Cristhian Orozco
RepublicanCandidate
Erica Alejandra Neely
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Nevada state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.28 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.25 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 63,951
- People per km²
- 1,179
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 40%
- White, no degree
- 26%of adults
- White 41%
- Hispanic 15%
- Black 11%
- Asian 24%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
34,827 votes · D+2.2✓ Steve Yeager (D)51.1%
Erica A Neely (R)48.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
36,293 two-party votes · D+0.5 · D+2.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.3%
Donald Trump (R)49.7%
2022
22,891 votes · D+6.4✓ Steve Yeager (D)53.2%
Ryan Patrick Fleming (R)46.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
42,558 votes · D+10.3✓ Steve Yeager (D)55.2%
Barbara Altman (R)44.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
33,144 two-party votes · D+8.6 · D+4.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.3%
Donald Trump (R)45.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
20,667 two-party votes · D+9.8 · D+7.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.9%
Donald Trump (R)45.1%
Also on the ballot in Nevada
Neighboring districts
AD-2Kamilah BywatersDrew TeitelbaumD flipFlip risk66%Dem.52%Dem. AD-5Brittney MillerKelly Quinn96%Dem.82%Dem. AD-8Duy NguyenDavid Farrakhan97%Dem.84%Dem. AD-35Joe SpicaRebecca EdgeworthFlip riskD flip54%Dem.64%Dem. AD-36Jon Penn JunejoGregory T. Hafen II99%Rep.97%Rep. AD-42Tracy Brown-MayChristopher Brandlin98%Dem.88%Dem.