DemocraticIncumbent
Nevada › Nevada State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada Assembly District 37
Backus is clearly favored to win: Backus wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Backus (D)
93%
chance of winning
Douglass (R)
7%
- Average margin
- D+11.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+2 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Backus is favored to win: Backus wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Backus (D)
74%
chance of winning
Douglass (R)
26%
- Average margin
- D+6.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jill M. Douglass
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Nevada state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.64 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.12 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.12 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 76,786
- People per km²
- 2,064
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 54%
- Hispanic 21%
- Black 10%
- Asian 8%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
40,730 votes · D+2.6✓ Shea Backus (D)51.3%
David Brog (R)48.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
41,154 two-party votes · D+0.2 · D+1.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.1%
Donald Trump (R)49.9%
2022
31,312 votes · D+2.6✓ Shea Backus (D)50.5%
Jacob Deaville (R)47.9%
Marc Tedoff (L)1.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
36,765 votes · R+1.8✓ Andy Matthews (R)50.9%
Shea Backus (D)49.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
40,956 two-party votes · D+3.6 · R+0.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.8%
Donald Trump (R)48.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
33,423 two-party votes · D+1.3 · R+1.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.6%
Donald Trump (R)49.4%