Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Nevada › Nevada State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada State Senate District 8
Loop is clearly favored to win: Loop wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Loop (D)
90%
chance of winning
Chavez (R)
10%
- Average margin
- D+9.7
- 80% of outcomes
- Even to D+20
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Loop is favored to win: Loop wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Loop (D)
67%
chance of winning
Chavez (R)
33%
- Average margin
- D+4.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Marilyn Dondero Loop
RepublicanCandidate
Laz Chavez
RepublicanCandidate
George E. Harris
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Nevada state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.61 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.64 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.64 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 150,536
- People per km²
- 2,272
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 29%of adults
- White 48%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 10%
- Asian 16%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
75,103 two-party votes · R+2.2 · R+0.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.1%
Kamala Harris (D)48.9%
2022
52,642 votes · D+1.4✓ Marilyn Dondero Loop (D)50.7%
Joey Paulos (R)49.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
74,368 two-party votes · D+4.7 · D+0.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.4%
Donald Trump (R)47.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
49,931 votes · D+3.3✓ Marilyn Dondero Loop (D)51.6%
Valerie Weber (R)48.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
58,398 two-party votes · D+4.0 · D+1.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.0%
Donald Trump (R)48.0%
2014 Earlier district lines
28,416 votes · R+18.7✓ Patricia Farley (R)57.0%
Marilyn Donderoloop (D)39.0%
Jon Kamerath (I)3.9%