Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Nevada › Nevada State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada State Senate District 12
Pazina is clearly favored to win: Pazina wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Pazina (D)
94%
chance of winning
Arroyo (R)
6%
- Average margin
- D+12.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Pazina is favored to win: Pazina wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Pazina (D)
77%
chance of winning
Arroyo (R)
23%
- Average margin
- D+6.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Julie Ann Pazina
Republican
Rafael Arroyo
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Nevada state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.68 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.55 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 5.55 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 152,184
- People per km²
- 2,114
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 31%of adults
- White 46%
- Hispanic 21%
- Black 8%
- Asian 14%
- Other / multiracial 12%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
74,855 two-party votes · D+0.6 · D+2.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.3%
Donald Trump (R)49.7%
2022
50,708 votes · D+4.9✓ Julie Ann Pazina (D)52.5%
Cherlyn Arrington (R)47.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
73,521 two-party votes · D+6.7 · D+2.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.3%
Donald Trump (R)46.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
60,326 votes · R+23.3✓ Joe Hardy (R)61.7%
Craig Jordahl (D)38.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
55,538 two-party votes · D+7.1 · D+4.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)53.6%
Donald Trump (R)46.4%
2014 Earlier district lines
28,657 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Joe Hardy (R)100.0%