Democratic
Nevada › Nevada State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada Assembly District 23
Fanning is very likely to win: Fanning wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Aspelund (D)
4%
chance of winning
Fanning (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+13.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Fanning is clearly favored to win: Fanning wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Aspelund (D)
11%
chance of winning
Fanning (R)
89%
- Average margin
- R+11.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Denise Daniels Fanning
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Nevada state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.62 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+17: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 77,746
- People per km²
- 18
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 43%
- White, no degree
- 40%of adults
- White 65%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 4%
- Asian 11%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
37,677 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Danielle Gallant (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
52,203 two-party votes · R+17.0 · R+15.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.5%
Kamala Harris (D)41.5%
2022
39,698 votes · R+19.6✓ Danielle Gallant (R)58.9%
Elizabeth Brickfield (D)39.6%
Mercy Manley (L)1.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
47,939 votes · R+30.5✓ Glen Leavitt (R)63.4%
Brent Foutz (D)33.8%
Bill Hoge (—)2.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
48,379 two-party votes · R+16.2 · R+20.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.1%
Joe Biden (D)41.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
39,206 two-party votes · R+23.4 · R+25.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.3%