Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Nevada › Nevada State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada State Senate District 9
Scheible is very likely to win: Scheible wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Scheible (D)
96%
chance of winning
Thompson (R)
4%
- Average margin
- D+14.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Scheible is clearly favored to win: Scheible wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Scheible (D)
82%
chance of winning
Thompson (R)
18%
- Average margin
- D+9.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Melanie Scheible
Republican
Maria Thompson
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Nevada state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.74 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.84 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.84 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 137,920
- People per km²
- 1,576
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 27%of adults
- White 38%
- Hispanic 22%
- Black 11%
- Asian 22%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
66,954 two-party votes · D+2.7 · D+4.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.3%
Donald Trump (R)48.7%
2022
42,698 votes · D+6.9✓ Melanie Scheible (D)53.5%
Tina Brown (R)46.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
62,313 two-party votes · D+11.1 · D+6.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.6%
Donald Trump (R)44.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
55,560 votes · D+11.2✓ Melanie Scheible (D)55.6%
Tiffany Jones (R)44.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
42,782 two-party votes · D+13.1 · D+10.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)56.6%
Donald Trump (R)43.4%
2014 Earlier district lines
22,591 votes · R+10.4✓ Becky Harris (R)55.2%
Justin Jones (D)44.8%