DemocraticCandidate
Nevada › Nevada State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada Assembly District 29
Delobel is clearly favored to win: Delobel wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Delobel (D)
94%
chance of winning
Ludwig (R)
6%
- Average margin
- D+11.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+2 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Delobel is clearly favored to win: Delobel wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Delobel (D)
84%
chance of winning
Ludwig (R)
16%
- Average margin
- D+9.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticCandidate
Alex Pereszlenyi
DemocraticCandidate
Bradley Combs
Republican
Joe Ludwig
Libertarian
Kathryn Nix
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Nevada state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.33 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.21 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 75,292
- People per km²
- 1,744
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 50%
- Hispanic 21%
- Black 11%
- Asian 9%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
34,064 votes · D+4.3✓ Joe Dalia (D)52.2%
Annette Dawson Owens (R)47.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
35,214 two-party votes · D+3.4 · D+4.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.7%
Donald Trump (R)48.3%
2022
23,860 votes · D+6.3✓ Lesley Elizabeth Cohen (D)53.1%
Rhonda Knightly (R)46.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
36,093 votes · D+2.5✓ Lesley Elizabeth Cohen (D)51.2%
Steven E Delisle (R)48.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
34,525 two-party votes · D+8.6 · D+4.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.3%
Donald Trump (R)45.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
26,020 two-party votes · D+5.8 · D+3.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.9%
Donald Trump (R)47.1%