Democratic
Nevada › Nevada State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada Assembly District 35
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (54% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Spica (D)
54%
chance of winning
Edgeworth (R)
46%
- Average margin
- D+0.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (64%).
Spica is favored to win: Spica wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Spica (D)
64%
chance of winning
Edgeworth (R)
36%
- Average margin
- D+3.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Rebecca Edgeworth
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Nevada state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.28 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.07 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -5.07 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 62,166
- People per km²
- 805
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 40%
- White, no degree
- 29%of adults
- White 45%
- Hispanic 18%
- Black 7%
- Asian 21%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
38,914 votes · R+8.6✓ Rebecca Edgeworth (R)54.3%
Sharifa Wahab (D)45.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
40,336 two-party votes · R+3.1 · R+1.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.6%
Kamala Harris (D)48.4%
2022
25,170 votes · D+1.6✓ Michelle Gorelow (D)48.9%
Tiffany Jones (R)47.4%
Mindy Robinson (L)3.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
46,075 votes · D+4.8✓ Michelle Gorelow (D)52.4%
Jay Calhoun (R)47.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
35,006 two-party votes · D+5.2 · D+0.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.6%
Donald Trump (R)47.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
22,872 two-party votes · D+6.2 · D+4.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)53.1%
Donald Trump (R)46.9%