DemocraticIncumbent
Nevada › Nevada State Assembly · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada Assembly District 21
Marzola is clearly favored to win: Marzola wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Marzola (D)
95%
chance of winning
Carvalho (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+12.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Marzola is favored to win: Marzola wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Marzola (D)
80%
chance of winning
Carvalho (R)
20%
- Average margin
- D+7.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Nevada state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.65 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.14 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.14 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 71,121
- People per km²
- 2,268
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 33%of adults
- White 52%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 6%
- Asian 11%
- Other / multiracial 12%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
36,407 votes · D+1.5✓ Elaine Marzola (D)50.7%
April Arndt (R)49.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
37,558 two-party votes · D+1.7 · D+3.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.8%
Donald Trump (R)49.2%
2022
26,802 votes · D+4.8✓ Elaine Marzola (D)52.4%
Jon S Petrick (R)47.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
30,417 votes · D+3.9✓ Elaine Marzola (D)52.0%
Cherlyn Arrington (R)48.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
37,928 two-party votes · D+6.6 · D+2.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.3%
Donald Trump (R)46.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
30,272 two-party votes · D+4.3 · D+2.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.2%
Donald Trump (R)47.8%