Democratic
Minnesota › Minnesota State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota State Senate District 35
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (76%).
Nelson is favored to win: Nelson wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Nelson (D)
76%
chance of winning
Abeler (R)
24%
- Average margin
- D+5.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (79%).
Nelson is favored to win: Nelson wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Nelson (D)
79%
chance of winning
Abeler (R)
21%
- Average margin
- D+7.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Jim Abeler
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.34 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.21 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.21 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 84,340
- People per km²
- 1,021
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 57%of adults
- White 73%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 9%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
45,939 two-party votes · D+3.1 · D+4.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.6%
Donald Trump (R)48.4%
2022
34,448 votes · R+0.5✓ Jim Abeler (R)50.2%
Kari Rehrauer (D)49.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
49,959 votes · R+25.4✓ Jim Abeler (R)62.6%
David L Nelson (D)37.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
46,643 two-party votes · D+4.3 · R+0.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.1%
Donald Trump (R)47.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
43,951 votes · R+35.2✓ Jim Abeler (R)67.5%
Roger Johnson (D)32.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
39,327 two-party votes · R+6.4 · R+8.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.8%