Democratic
Minnesota › Minnesota State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota State Senate District 37
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (95%).
Janigo is very likely to win: Janigo wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Janigo (D)
95%
chance of winning
Hoag (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+12.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (89%).
Janigo is clearly favored to win: Janigo wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Janigo (D)
89%
chance of winning
Hoag (R)
11%
- Average margin
- D+12.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Brady Hoag
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.33 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -15.02 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 90,054
- People per km²
- 227
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 56%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 7%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
55,132 two-party votes · D+8.4 · D+9.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)54.2%
Donald Trump (R)45.8%
2022
44,574 votes · R+9.8✓ Warren Limmer (R)54.9%
Farhio Khalif (D)45.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
49,826 votes · D+4.9✓ Jerry Newton (D)52.4%
Brad Sanford (R)47.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
54,695 two-party votes · D+6.4 · D+1.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.2%
Donald Trump (R)46.8%
2016 Earlier district lines
43,045 votes · D+3.0✓ Jerry Newton (D)51.4%
Brad Sanford (R)48.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
44,473 two-party votes · R+5.3 · R+7.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.3%
Also on the ballot in Minnesota
Neighboring districts
SD-17Julie KelzerGlenn H Gruenhagen>99%Rep.>99%Rep. SD-29Louis McNuttMichael Holmstrom Jr>99%Rep.99%Rep. SD-30Leah TempleEric Lucero99%Rep.98%Rep. SD-34John HoffmanKaren Attia>99%Dem.95%Dem. SD-38Susan PhaBrad Olson>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-42Bonnie WestlinKevin Peterson>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-43Mike Freiberg—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-45Ann Johnson StewartShannon Bruce>99%Dem.97%Dem.