DemocraticIncumbent
Minnesota › Minnesota State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota State Senate District 41
Seeberger is clearly favored to win: Seeberger wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Seeberger (D)
93%
chance of winning
Dippel (R)
7%
- Average margin
- D+10.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+2 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Seeberger is favored to win: Seeberger wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Seeberger (D)
73%
chance of winning
Dippel (R)
27%
- Average margin
- D+5.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Tom Dippel
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.66 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.61 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.61 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 89,518
- People per km²
- 184
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 45%
- White, no degree
- 46%of adults
- White 81%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 4%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
54,560 two-party votes · D+1.5 · D+3.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.8%
Donald Trump (R)49.2%
2022
42,791 votes · D+0.8✓ Judy Seeberger (D)50.3%
Tom Dippel (R)49.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
44,830 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mary Kunesh-Podein (—)66.8%
Lucia Marina Vogel (R)33.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
54,696 two-party votes · D+2.9 · R+1.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.5%
Donald Trump (R)48.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
41,115 votes · D+22.3✓ Carolyn Laine (D)61.0%
Gary R Johnson (R)38.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
42,577 two-party votes · R+5.0 · R+7.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.5%