Democratic
Minnesota › Minnesota House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota House District 11A
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (55% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Swanson (D)
55%
chance of winning
Dotseth (R)
45%
- Average margin
- D+0.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (57% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Swanson (D)
57%
chance of winning
Dotseth (R)
43%
- Average margin
- D+1.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Jeff Dotseth
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.02 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.54 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.54 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 44,982
- People per km²
- 12
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 66%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
23,936 votes · R+2.8✓ Jeff Dotseth (R)51.2%
Pete Radosevich (D)48.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
23,930 two-party votes · R+3.8 · R+2.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.9%
Kamala Harris (D)48.1%
2022
18,590 votes · R+2.4✓ Jeff Dotseth (R)51.2%
Pete Radosevich (D)48.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
22,275 votes · D+2.9✓ Mike Sundin (D)51.4%
Jeff Dotseth (R)48.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
24,867 two-party votes · D+0.3 · R+4.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.2%
Donald Trump (R)49.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
20,710 two-party votes · D+1.0 · R+1.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.5%
Donald Trump (R)49.5%