Democratic
Minnesota › Minnesota State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota State Senate District 7
Farnsworth is clearly favored to win: Farnsworth wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
McLaughlin (D)
17%
chance of winning
Farnsworth (R)
83%
- Average margin
- R+7.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Farnsworth is favored to win: Farnsworth wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
McLaughlin (D)
21%
chance of winning
Farnsworth (R)
79%
- Average margin
- R+7.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Robert Farnsworth
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+7.9Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.7 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 8.14 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 8.14 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 79,708
- People per km²
- 7
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 21%
- White, no degree
- 74%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 1%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
48,391 two-party votes · R+13.7 · R+12.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.8%
Kamala Harris (D)43.2%
2022
39,199 votes · R+7.1✓ Robert Farnsworth (R)53.1%
Ben Denucci (D)46.1%
Write-In (—)0.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
44,683 votes · D+36.9✓ Jen McEwen (D)68.3%
Donna Bergstrom (R)31.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
49,225 two-party votes · R+8.8 · R+13.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.4%
Joe Biden (D)45.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
42,253 votes · D+31.3✓ Erik Simonson (D)65.5%
Donna Bergstrom (R)34.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
43,102 two-party votes · R+6.7 · R+8.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.6%