Democratic
Maine › Maine State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine State Senate District 4
Perkins is very likely to win: Perkins wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Kalp (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Perkins (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+29.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+39 to R+20
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Perkins is very likely to win: Perkins wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Kalp (D)
1%
chance of winning
Perkins (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+30.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+43 to R+18
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Chad Richard Perkins
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.42 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.64 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+34: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 40,998
- People per km²
- 3
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 20%
- White, no degree
- 75%of adults
- White 94%
- Hispanic 1%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
23,250 votes · R+35.1✓ Stacey K Guerin (R)67.5%
Richard A Evans (D)32.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
23,580 two-party votes · R+34.7 · R+33.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.4%
Kamala Harris (D)32.6%
2022
18,970 votes · R+40.3✓ Stacey K Guerin (R)70.2%
Andrea I Thurlow (D)29.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
19,446 votes · R+52.4✓ Paul T Davis Sr (R)76.2%
David F Ziemer (D)23.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
22,575 two-party votes · R+32.4 · R+36.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.2%
Joe Biden (D)33.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
20,145 two-party votes · R+32.3 · R+34.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)33.9%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
SD-1Vaughn J McLaughlinLucien J.B. Daigle98%Rep.92%Rep. SD-2Harold Steve HullHarold L Stewart III>99%Rep.99%Rep. SD-3Stanley Byron Short Jr.Joel R Stetkis>99%Rep.99%Rep. SD-5Robert F SullebargerElizabeth M Caruso98%Rep.94%Rep. SD-8Michael TippingLeo C KenneyFlip risk82%Dem.57%Dem. SD-9Amy J Roeder—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-10Kevin J.M. O'ConnellDavid G Haggan89%Rep.80%Rep.