DemocraticIncumbent
Maine › Maine State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine State Senate District 23
Daughtry is very likely to win: Daughtry wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Daughtry (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Porter (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+42.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+33 to D+52
- Partisan lean
- D+43
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Daughtry is very likely to win: Daughtry wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Daughtry (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Porter (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+44.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+32 to D+57
- Partisan lean
- D+43
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Bernard Porter
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.41 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.96 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.96 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+43: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 44,472
- People per km²
- 59
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 59%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 91%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
27,066 votes · D+37.5✓ Matthea Elisabeth Daughtry (D)68.7%
Michael J Lawler (R)31.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
29,374 two-party votes · D+43.2 · D+44.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)71.6%
Donald Trump (R)28.4%
2022
23,410 votes · D+39.3✓ Matthea Elisabeth Daughtry (D)69.7%
Brogan P K Teel (R)30.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
24,732 votes · D+11.7✓ Eloise A Vitelli (D)55.8%
Holly J P Kopp (R)44.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
29,005 two-party votes · D+42.6 · D+38.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)71.3%
Donald Trump (R)28.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
24,707 two-party votes · D+34.6 · D+32.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)67.3%
Donald Trump (R)32.7%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.