DemocraticIncumbent
Maine › Maine State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine State Senate District 29
Carney is very likely to win: Carney wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Carney (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Maietta (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+47.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+39 to D+58
- Partisan lean
- D+50
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Carney is very likely to win: Carney wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Carney (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Maietta (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+52.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+41 to D+66
- Partisan lean
- D+50
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Vincent A Maietta
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.7 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.78 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.78 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+50: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 36,536
- People per km²
- 168
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 57%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 5%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
23,127 votes · D+49.4✓ Anne M Carney (D)74.7%
Christopher M Howell (R)25.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
27,162 two-party votes · D+50.3 · D+51.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)75.2%
Donald Trump (R)24.8%
2022
20,361 votes · D+50.8✓ Anne M Carney (D)75.4%
John Wesley Lewis (R)24.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
25,068 votes · D+34.4✓ Anne M Carney (D)67.2%
Stephanie Anderson (R)32.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
27,857 two-party votes · D+49.6 · D+45.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)74.8%
Donald Trump (R)25.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
24,078 two-party votes · D+40.1 · D+37.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)70.0%
Donald Trump (R)30.0%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.