Democratic
Maine › Maine State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine State Senate District 2
Stewart is very likely to win: Stewart wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hull (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Stewart (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+27.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+38 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+33
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Stewart is very likely to win: Stewart wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hull (D)
1%
chance of winning
Stewart (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+28.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+42 to R+16
- Partisan lean
- R+33
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Harold L Stewart III
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.79 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.78 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+33: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 40,055
- People per km²
- 4
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 20%
- White, no degree
- 75%of adults
- White 93%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
20,586 votes · R+32.8✓ Harold L Stewart III (R)66.4%
Matthew J Rush (D)33.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
21,172 two-party votes · R+33.8 · R+32.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.9%
Kamala Harris (D)33.1%
2022
16,643 votes · R+40.3✓ Harold L Stewart III (R)70.1%
Danielle A Fienberg (D)29.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
19,080 votes · R+13.8✓ Harold L Stewart III (R)56.8%
Michael E Carpenter (D)43.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
21,172 two-party votes · R+30.5 · R+35.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.2%
Joe Biden (D)34.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
19,387 two-party votes · R+30.3 · R+32.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)34.9%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.