Democratic
Maine › Maine State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine State Senate District 34
Sayre is very likely to win: Sayre wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Sayre (D)
99%
chance of winning
Fallon (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+18.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+10 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Sayre is very likely to win: Sayre wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Sayre (D)
96%
chance of winning
Fallon (R)
4%
- Average margin
- D+17.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+30
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jonathan R Fallon
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.54 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.97 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 40,521
- People per km²
- 64
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 43%
- White, no degree
- 53%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
26,751 votes · D+11.1✓ Joseph E Rafferty Jr (D)55.5%
Bradley Scott Ducharme (R)44.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
26,987 two-party votes · D+15.1 · D+16.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.5%
Donald Trump (R)42.5%
2022
21,596 votes · D+16.3✓ Joseph E Rafferty Jr (D)58.2%
Bradley Scott Ducharme (R)41.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
26,896 votes · D+3.7✓ Joseph E Rafferty Jr (D)51.9%
Michael Pardue (R)48.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
25,987 two-party votes · D+17.3 · D+12.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)58.6%
Donald Trump (R)41.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
21,547 two-party votes · D+8.2 · D+6.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.1%
Donald Trump (R)45.9%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.