Democratic
Maine › Maine State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine State Senate District 35
Meyer is very likely to win: Meyer wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Meyer (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Rakic (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+31.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+23 to D+41
- Partisan lean
- D+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Meyer is very likely to win: Meyer wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Meyer (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Rakic (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+31.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+19 to D+44
- Partisan lean
- D+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Julie N Rakic
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.85 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.72 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+30: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 40,654
- People per km²
- 57
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 48%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 91%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
25,710 votes · D+26.7✓ Mark W Lawrence (D)63.4%
Julie N Rakic (R)36.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
25,970 two-party votes · D+29.7 · D+31.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)64.9%
Donald Trump (R)35.1%
2022
21,425 votes · D+29.8✓ Mark W Lawrence (D)64.9%
Julie Rakic (R)35.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
27,303 votes · D+25.3✓ Mark W Lawrence (D)62.6%
Bradley S Moulton (R)37.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
26,047 two-party votes · D+30.8 · D+26.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)65.4%
Donald Trump (R)34.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
22,194 two-party votes · D+22.2 · D+20.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)61.1%
Donald Trump (R)38.9%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.