DemocraticIncumbent
Maine › Maine State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine State Senate District 7
Grohoski is very likely to win: Grohoski wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Grohoski (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Hewes (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+25.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+17 to D+36
- Partisan lean
- D+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Grohoski is very likely to win: Grohoski wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Grohoski (D)
98%
chance of winning
Hewes (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+22.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+36
- Partisan lean
- D+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Cheryl A Hewes
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.7 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.38 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.38 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 41,129
- People per km²
- 13
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 44%
- White, no degree
- 53%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
24,896 votes · D+23.1✓ Nicole C Grohoski (D)61.5%
Sherman Hutchins (R)38.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
24,849 two-party votes · D+21.8 · D+23.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)60.9%
Donald Trump (R)39.1%
2022
21,724 votes · D+17.9✓ Nicole C Grohoski (D)59.0%
Brian D Langley (R)41.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
25,952 votes · D+10.0✓ Louis Luchini (D)55.0%
Brian D Langley (R)45.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
24,194 two-party votes · D+23.6 · D+19.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)61.8%
Donald Trump (R)38.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
21,066 two-party votes · D+18.6 · D+16.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)59.3%
Donald Trump (R)40.7%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.