Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia House District 124
Rhodes is very likely to win: Rhodes wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Miller wins Nov 3
1%
Runoff Dec 1
1%
Rhodes wins Nov 3
98%
Including the runoff: Miller 1% · Rhodes 99% to win the seat. In a runoff, Rhodes wins 55% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+18.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+9
- Partisan lean
- R+24
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Rhodes is very likely to win: Rhodes wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Miller wins Nov 3
2%
Runoff Dec 1
2%
Rhodes wins Nov 3
96%
Including the runoff: Miller 3% · Rhodes 97% to win the seat. In a runoff, Rhodes wins 52% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+19.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+32 to R+7
- Partisan lean
- R+24
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Melanie Miller
RepublicanIncumbent
Trey Rhodes
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.09 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.33 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -5.33 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+24: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 60,886
- People per km²
- 20
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 40%of adults
- White 64%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 24%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
34,775 votes · R+31.5✓ Trey Rhodes (R)65.7%
Melanie M Miller (D)34.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
34,197 two-party votes · R+24.9 · R+23.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.5%
Kamala Harris (D)37.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
28,198 votes · R+31.7✓ Trey Rhodes (R)65.8%
Kat Howkins (D)34.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
16,454 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Henry Howard (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
36,023 two-party votes · R+19.6 · R+24.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.8%
Joe Biden (D)40.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
30,531 two-party votes · R+25.1 · R+27.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.5%
Also on the ballot in Georgia
Neighboring districts
HD-114Michael CawBrett Mauldin>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-121Eric GislerMack GuestFlip riskR flipRunoff 21%58%Dem.65%Rep. HD-122Spencer FryeCarol Hubbard>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-123Hope BeardRob Leverett>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-128Tyrone EvansTrey SheppardFlip riskFlip riskRunoff 21%51%Dem.55%Dem. HD-144—Dale Washburn>99%Rep.>99%Rep.