Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia House District 145
Herring is very likely to win: Herring wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Herring wins Nov 3
94%
Runoff Dec 1
4%
Wilson wins Nov 3
3%
Including the runoff: Herring 96% · Wilson 4% to win the seat. In a runoff, Herring wins 55% of the time.
- Average margin
- D+14.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Herring is clearly favored to win: Herring wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Herring wins Nov 3
79%
Runoff Dec 1
10%
Wilson wins Nov 3
11%
Including the runoff: Herring 84% · Wilson 16% to win the seat. In a runoff, Herring wins 52% of the time.
- Average margin
- D+9.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Tangie Herring
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Eric Wilson
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.92 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.95 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.95 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 59,905
- People per km²
- 77
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 42%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 46%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
27,031 votes · D+1.0✓ Tangie Herring (D)50.5%
Noah Redding Harbuck (R)49.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
28,666 two-party votes · D+4.4 · D+5.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.2%
Donald Trump (R)47.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
15,983 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Robert Dickey (R)99.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
22,030 votes · R+12.3✓ Ricky Williams (R)56.2%
Quentin T Howell (D)43.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
27,526 two-party votes · D+9.0 · D+4.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.5%
Donald Trump (R)45.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
23,685 two-party votes · D+8.3 · D+6.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.1%
Donald Trump (R)45.9%