Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia House District 40
New is clearly favored to win: New wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Lassiter wins Nov 3
3%
Runoff Dec 1
5%
New wins Nov 3
92%
Including the runoff: Lassiter 5% · New 95% to win the seat. In a runoff, New wins 54% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+12.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
New is clearly favored to win: New wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Lassiter wins Nov 3
8%
Runoff Dec 1
7%
New wins Nov 3
85%
Including the runoff: Lassiter 11% · New 89% to win the seat. In a runoff, New wins 54% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+12.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Elisa Lassiter
RepublicanIncumbent
Kimberly New
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.89 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.27 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.27 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 59,977
- People per km²
- 187
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 26%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
31,793 votes · R+18.7✓ Kimberly R New (R)59.3%
Montenia Edwards (D)40.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
29,830 two-party votes · R+14.2 · R+12.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.1%
Kamala Harris (D)42.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
26,888 votes · D+28.4✓ Doug Stoner (D)64.2%
Fun Fong (R)35.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
35,489 votes · D+16.7✓ Erick Eugene Allen (D)58.4%
Taryn Chilivis Bowman (R)41.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
30,910 two-party votes · R+23.0 · R+27.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.5%
Joe Biden (D)38.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
23,833 two-party votes · R+37.5 · R+39.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)31.2%
Also on the ballot in Georgia
Neighboring districts
HD-17Tamyko GreenMartin Momtahan>99%Rep.98%Rep. HD-18Pat RhudyTyler Smith>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-19Cynthia Starke-JonesJoseph GullettRunoff 8%91%Rep.79%Rep. HD-38David Wilkerson—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-64Sylvia Wayfer BakerLydia Parchue>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-65Robert DawsonGordon Rolle>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-66Kimberly Alexander—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-70Diane BoulaiMelissa StuckeyRunoff 2%99%Rep.96%Rep. HD-71Anna HigginsJustin Howard>99%Rep.99%Rep.