Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia House District 35
Campbell is very likely to win: Campbell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Campbell (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Casely (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+27.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+18 to D+38
- Partisan lean
- D+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Campbell is very likely to win: Campbell wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Campbell wins Nov 3
98%
Runoff Dec 1
1%
Casely wins Nov 3
1%
Including the runoff: Campbell 99% · Casely 1% to win the seat. In a runoff, Campbell wins 57% of the time.
- Average margin
- D+24.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+12 to D+37
- Partisan lean
- D+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Lisa Campbell
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Elivs Casely
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.75 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.32 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 5.32 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+19: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 53,302
- People per km²
- 925
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 46%
- White, no degree
- 27%of adults
- White 49%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 27%
- Asian 8%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
26,780 votes · D+21.6✓ Lisa Gayle Campbell (D)60.8%
Gary Cecil Chaffee (R)39.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
26,144 two-party votes · D+18.7 · D+20.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)59.4%
Donald Trump (R)40.6%
2022 Earlier district lines
19,925 votes · D+12.0✓ Lisa Campbell (D)56.0%
Robert Trim (R)44.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
30,098 votes · R+0.9✓ Ed Setzler (R)50.5%
Kyle Rinaudo (D)49.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
24,516 two-party votes · D+19.2 · D+14.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)59.6%
Donald Trump (R)40.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
19,194 two-party votes · D+5.7 · D+3.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.9%
Donald Trump (R)47.1%