Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia House District 100
Clark is very likely to win: Clark wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Ambler wins Nov 3
2%
Runoff Dec 1
2%
Clark wins Nov 3
96%
Including the runoff: Ambler 3% · Clark 97% to win the seat. In a runoff, Clark wins 53% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+16.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+7
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Clark is clearly favored to win: Clark wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Ambler wins Nov 3
7%
Runoff Dec 1
6%
Clark wins Nov 3
87%
Including the runoff: Ambler 10% · Clark 91% to win the seat. In a runoff, Clark wins 52% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+13.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Jennifer Ambler
Republican
Josh Clark
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.51 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.51 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 61,151
- People per km²
- 505
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 51%
- White, no degree
- 31%of adults
- White 56%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 9%
- Asian 18%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
31,453 votes · R+24.8✓ David Clark (R)62.4%
Jennifer Ambler (D)37.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
30,899 two-party votes · R+19.5 · R+18.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.7%
Kamala Harris (D)40.3%
2022 Earlier district lines
23,167 votes · R+29.6✓ David Clark (R)64.8%
Louisa Shell Jackson (D)35.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
14,498 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Dewey L McClain (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
28,660 two-party votes · R+20.4 · R+24.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.2%
Joe Biden (D)39.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
21,442 two-party votes · R+37.4 · R+39.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)31.3%
Also on the ballot in Georgia
Neighboring districts
HD-25Elaine PadgettTodd JonesRunoff 10%87%Rep.73%Rep. HD-26Meredith GreeneLauren McDonald>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-30Braden DoxeyDerrick McCollum>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-50Michelle AuAzure Duan99%Dem.97%Dem. HD-99Michelle KangMatt ReevesD flipD flipRunoff 13%84%Dem.87%Dem. HD-103Chris LucheySoo HongRunoff 7%92%Rep.81%Rep.