Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia House District 70
Stuckey is very likely to win: Stuckey wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Boulai wins Nov 3
1%
Runoff Dec 1
1%
Stuckey wins Nov 3
98%
Including the runoff: Boulai 1% · Stuckey 99% to win the seat. In a runoff, Stuckey wins 55% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+17.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+8
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Stuckey is very likely to win: Stuckey wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Boulai wins Nov 3
3%
Runoff Dec 1
3%
Stuckey wins Nov 3
95%
Including the runoff: Boulai 4% · Stuckey 96% to win the seat. In a runoff, Stuckey wins 53% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+17.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+30 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Diane Boulai
Republican
Melissa Stuckey
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.67 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.83 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 62,902
- People per km²
- 125
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 43%of adults
- White 60%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 24%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
27,763 votes · R+26.8✓ Lynn Smith (R)63.4%
Diane Boulai (D)36.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
30,759 two-party votes · R+22.2 · R+20.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.1%
Kamala Harris (D)38.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
19,940 votes · R+29.9✓ Lynn Smith (R)65.0%
Calvin Louis Anderson Jr (D)35.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
24,742 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Lynn Smith (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
28,113 two-party votes · R+22.9 · R+27.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.4%
Joe Biden (D)38.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
20,260 two-party votes · R+24.6 · R+26.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.7%