Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia House District 119
Persinger is very likely to win: Persinger wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Morris (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Persinger (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+35.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+45 to R+27
- Partisan lean
- R+43
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Persinger is very likely to win: Persinger wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Morris (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Persinger (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+38.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+51 to R+26
- Partisan lean
- R+43
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Catherine Morris
RepublicanIncumbent
Holt Persinger
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.1 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -14.27 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -14.27 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+43: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 62,028
- People per km²
- 213
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 63%
- Hispanic 15%
- Black 14%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
26,957 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Holt Persinger (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
30,156 two-party votes · R+42.6 · R+41.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.3%
Kamala Harris (D)28.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
18,484 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Danny Rampey (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
30,680 votes · R+9.7✓ Marcus A Wiedower (R)54.9%
Jonathan Wallace (D)45.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
25,899 two-party votes · R+45.0 · R+49.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)72.5%
Joe Biden (D)27.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
19,340 two-party votes · R+53.0 · R+55.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)76.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)23.5%
Also on the ballot in Georgia
Neighboring districts
HD-30Braden DoxeyDerrick McCollum>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-31—Chad Bingham>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-104—Chuck Efstration>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-111Scott JacksonReynaldo MartinezRunoff 3%97%Rep.94%Rep. HD-112Lisa MariaBruce Williamson>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-120Suzanna KaratassosGary BlackRunoff 14%83%Rep.75%Rep. HD-121Eric GislerMack GuestFlip riskR flipRunoff 21%58%Dem.65%Rep.