Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia House District 11
Jasperse is very likely to win: Jasperse wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Fountain (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Jasperse (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+49.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+59 to R+41
- Partisan lean
- R+62
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Jasperse is very likely to win: Jasperse wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Fountain (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Jasperse (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+57.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+70 to R+45
- Partisan lean
- R+62
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Ryan Fountain
RepublicanIncumbent
Rick Jasperse
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.02 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.29 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.29 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+62: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 69,351
- People per km²
- 85
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 60%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 1%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
37,120 votes · R+65.6✓ Rick Jasperse (R)82.8%
Kayla L Hollifield (D)17.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
38,135 two-party votes · R+61.5 · R+60.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)80.8%
Kamala Harris (D)19.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
27,113 votes · R+68.1✓ Rick Jasperse (R)84.1%
Kayla L Hollifield (D)15.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
26,905 votes · R+68.2✓ Rick Jasperse (R)84.1%
Kayla Hollifield (D)15.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
32,761 two-party votes · R+62.2 · R+66.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)81.1%
Joe Biden (D)18.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
24,237 two-party votes · R+70.7 · R+73.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)85.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)14.6%
Also on the ballot in Georgia
Neighboring districts
HD-5Ramsus JensenMatt Barton>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-6Cathy KottJason Ridley>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-7—Johnny Chastain>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-9Roger SmithChris Dockery>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-14Bella BautistaMitchell Scoggins>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-21Anthony AraguesBrad Thomas>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-23Rob EpsteinBill Fincher>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-24Maureen GaultCarter BarrettRunoff <1%99%Rep.98%Rep. HD-28Mateo SanabriaBrent Cox>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-47Lindsay DefrancoJack MillerRunoff 15%80%Rep.74%Rep.