Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia House District 73
Bonner is very likely to win: Bonner wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Wilkinson wins Nov 3
<1%
Runoff Dec 1
1%
Bonner wins Nov 3
99%
Including the runoff: Wilkinson 1% · Bonner 99% to win the seat. In a runoff, Wilkinson wins 51% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+20.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+30 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Bonner is very likely to win: Bonner wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Wilkinson wins Nov 3
2%
Runoff Dec 1
2%
Bonner wins Nov 3
96%
Including the runoff: Wilkinson 3% · Bonner 97% to win the seat. In a runoff, Bonner wins 52% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+20.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+33 to R+8
- Partisan lean
- R+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Tim Wilkinson
RepublicanIncumbent
Josh Bonner
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.13 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.76 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -4.76 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+26: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 45,561
- People per km²
- 246
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 53%
- White, no degree
- 31%of adults
- White 65%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 13%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
37,547 votes · R+33.8✓ Josh Bonner (R)66.9%
Tom Thomason (D)33.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
34,642 two-party votes · R+25.8 · R+24.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.9%
Kamala Harris (D)37.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
24,239 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Josh Bonner (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
29,059 votes · R+11.9✓ Karen Mathiak (R)56.0%
William Harris (D)44.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
32,157 two-party votes · R+28.4 · R+33.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.2%
Joe Biden (D)35.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
27,598 two-party votes · R+44.0 · R+46.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)72.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)28.0%
Also on the ballot in Georgia
Neighboring districts
HD-65Robert DawsonGordon Rolle>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-67Lydia GlaizeDaniel Cook>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-68Mark Baker—D vs D>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-69Debra Bazemore—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-70Diane BoulaiMelissa StuckeyRunoff 2%99%Rep.96%Rep. HD-82Anthony DicksonKaren MathiakRunoff 2%98%Rep.95%Rep. HD-136—David Jenkins>99%Rep.>99%Rep.