Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia House District 42
Sanchez is very likely to win: Sanchez wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Sanchez (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Stafford (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+40.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+31 to D+50
- Partisan lean
- D+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Sanchez is very likely to win: Sanchez wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Sanchez (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Stafford (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+40.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+28 to D+54
- Partisan lean
- D+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Gabriel Sanchez
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
André Stafford
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.37 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.24 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -6.24 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+35: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 50,436
- People per km²
- 987
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 49%
- White, no degree
- 19%of adults
- White 37%
- Hispanic 22%
- Black 29%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
26,358 votes · D+26.6✓ Gabriel Sanchez (D)63.3%
Diane E Jackson (R)36.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
26,997 two-party votes · D+34.5 · D+36.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)67.2%
Donald Trump (R)32.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
14,693 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Teri Anulewicz (D)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
17,237 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Teri Anulewicz (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
26,776 two-party votes · D+38.2 · D+33.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)69.1%
Donald Trump (R)30.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
21,167 two-party votes · D+30.8 · D+28.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)65.4%
Donald Trump (R)34.6%