Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia House District 17
Momtahan is very likely to win: Momtahan wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Green (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Momtahan (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+26.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+37 to R+16
- Partisan lean
- R+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Momtahan is very likely to win: Momtahan wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Green wins Nov 3
1%
Runoff Dec 1
1%
Momtahan wins Nov 3
98%
Including the runoff: Green 2% · Momtahan 98% to win the seat. In a runoff, Momtahan wins 58% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+23.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+36 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Tamyko Green
RepublicanIncumbent
Martin Momtahan
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.43 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -30.54 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+27: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 55,379
- People per km²
- 191
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 45%of adults
- White 55%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 26%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
25,364 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Martin Momtahan (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
33,609 two-party votes · R+26.1 · R+24.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.1%
Kamala Harris (D)36.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
22,255 votes · R+30.5✓ Martin Momtahan (R)65.3%
Sunshine Marshall (D)34.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
33,243 votes · R+43.4✓ Martin Momtahan (R)71.7%
Q Dailey (D)28.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
28,741 two-party votes · R+29.2 · R+33.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.6%
Joe Biden (D)35.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
18,730 two-party votes · R+43.7 · R+45.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)28.1%
Also on the ballot in Georgia
Neighboring districts
HD-15Lauren JonesMatthew Gambill>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-16Diana SpanglerTrey Kelley>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-18Pat RhudyTyler Smith>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-19Cynthia Starke-JonesJoseph GullettRunoff 8%91%Rep.79%Rep. HD-36Luc NoisetGinny EhrhartRunoff 2%97%Rep.89%Rep. HD-40Elisa LassiterKimberly NewRunoff 5%95%Rep.89%Rep.