Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia House District 54
Holland is very likely to win: Holland wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Holland (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Miller (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+30.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+21 to D+40
- Partisan lean
- D+24
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Holland is very likely to win: Holland wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Holland (D)
99%
chance of winning
Miller (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+29.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+17 to D+43
- Partisan lean
- D+24
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Betsy Holland
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Greg Miller
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.4 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.71 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.71 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+24: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 59,762
- People per km²
- 1,959
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 77%
- White, no degree
- 10%of adults
- White 60%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 18%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
30,082 votes · D+19.3✓ Betsy Holland (D)59.7%
Samantha Brown "sam" Parks (R)40.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
30,258 two-party votes · D+24.1 · D+25.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)62.1%
Donald Trump (R)37.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
23,418 votes · D+15.7✓ Betsy Holland (D)57.8%
John Bailey (R)42.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
36,941 votes · D+16.0✓ Betsy Holland (D)58.0%
Lyndsey Rudder (R)42.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
30,291 two-party votes · D+22.1 · D+17.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)61.1%
Donald Trump (R)38.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
22,734 two-party votes · D+10.8 · D+8.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.4%
Donald Trump (R)44.6%