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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

South Carolina › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

South Carolina Secretary of State

Hammond is very likely to win: Hammond wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.

Belton (D)
4%
chance of winning
Hammond (R)
96%
Average margin
R+12.9
80% of outcomes
R+22 to R+4
Partisan lean
R+17
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Hammond is favored to win: Hammond wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.

Belton (D)
22%
chance of winning
Hammond (R)
78%
Average margin
R+8.0
80% of outcomes
R+22 to D+6
Partisan lean
R+17
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

R+12.9R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30
R+8.0R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Belton 4%Hammond 96%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Belton 22%Hammond 78%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
South Carolina state offices
−1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodR+7.9Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+13.2Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in South Carolina andlook-alike placesR+12.7Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+13.0Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+8.0

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge-1
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-7.44
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation-7.44

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The state

Lean R+17: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+14.9R+17.1 vs. nation2020 presidentR+11.9R+16.4 vs. nation2024 presidentR+18.1R+16.6 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
5,296,225
Adults with a B.A.+
32%
White, no degree
41%of adults
  • White 62%
  • Hispanic 7%
  • Black 25%
  • Asian 2%
  • Other / multiracial 4%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

2,512,199 two-party votes · R+18.1 · R+16.6 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)59.1%
Kamala Harris (D)40.9%

2022

1,697,915 votes · R+26.7
✓ Mark Hammond (R)63.3%
Rosemounda Peggy Butler (D)36.6%

2020 President Vote in this state

2,476,644 two-party votes · R+11.9 · R+16.4 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)55.9%
Joe Biden (D)44.1%

2018

1,699,496 votes · R+14.3
✓ Mark Hammond (R)57.1%
Melvin T Whittenburg (D)42.8%

2016 President Vote in this state

2,010,762 two-party votes · R+14.9 · R+17.1 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)57.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.5%

Also on the ballot in South Carolina

U.S. SenateAnnie AndrewsDarline Graham74%Rep.71%Rep. GovernorJermaine JohnsonAlan Wilson90%Rep.89%Rep.