Democratic
Pennsylvania › Pennsylvania House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania House District 121
McClay is clearly favored to win: McClay wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
McClay (D)
86%
chance of winning
Harostock (R)
14%
- Average margin
- D+7.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
McClay is clearly favored to win: McClay wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
McClay (D)
81%
chance of winning
Harostock (R)
19%
- Average margin
- D+8.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Michael Harostock III
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Pennsylvania state offices
- +0.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.3Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.92 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 12.42 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 61,668
- People per km²
- 204
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 51%of adults
- White 60%
- Hispanic 26%
- Black 8%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
21,151 votes · D+10.6✓ Edwin Pashinski (D)55.3%
Donald J Disler (R)44.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
21,316 two-party votes · R+1.0 · D+0.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.5%
Kamala Harris (D)49.5%
2022
16,314 votes · D+8.8✓ Edwin A Pashinski (D)54.4%
Eryn Nicole Harvey (R)45.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
18,764 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Edwin Pashinski (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
30,580 two-party votes · D+5.8 · D+1.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.9%
Donald Trump (R)47.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
26,505 two-party votes · R+2.2 · R+4.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.9%
Also on the ballot in Pennsylvania
Neighboring districts
HD-113Kyle DonahueLucas O'Brien99%Dem.96%Dem. HD-117Jeremy BenscoterJamie Walsh>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-118Jim HaddockJohn LombardoFlip risk87%Dem.53%Dem. HD-119Lauren Elizabeth McCurdyAlec Ryncavage94%Rep.84%Rep. HD-120Fern LeardBrenda Pugh81%Rep.67%Rep. HD-122Christian BartulovichDoyle Heffley>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-176Thomas KucerJack Rader92%Rep.87%Rep.