Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats (the even-numbered districts in 2026) are on the ballot each election.
Pennsylvania › Pennsylvania State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania State Senate District 24
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (67%).
Thomas is favored to win: Thomas wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Thomas (D)
67%
chance of winning
Pennycuick (R)
33%
- Average margin
- D+3.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (74%).
Thomas is favored to win: Thomas wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Thomas (D)
74%
chance of winning
Pennycuick (R)
26%
- Average margin
- D+5.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Chris Thomas
RepublicanIncumbent
Tracy Pennycuick
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Pennsylvania state offices
- +0.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.3Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.05 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.25 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.25 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 268,047
- People per km²
- 295
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 40%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 80%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 6%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
156,166 two-party votes · R+2.3 · R+0.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.1%
Kamala Harris (D)48.9%
2022
120,946 votes · R+4.0✓ Tracy E Pennycuick (R)52.0%
Jill Dennin (D)48.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
201,102 two-party votes · D+0.7 · R+3.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.3%
Donald Trump (R)49.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
104,144 votes · R+4.8✓ Robert Bruce Mensch (R)52.4%
Linda Fields (D)47.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
159,493 two-party votes · R+6.4 · R+8.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.8%
2014 Earlier district lines
69,926 votes · R+19.8✓ Robert Bruce Mensch (R)59.9%
Jack Hansen (D)40.1%