DemocraticIncumbent
Brandon Dukes
- Experience
- State legislature
Pennsylvania › Pennsylvania House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania House District 12
Projected flip: Democratic-held seat, Republicans favored (77%).
Timko is favored to win: Timko wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Dukes (D)
23%
chance of winning
Timko (R)
77%
- Average margin
- R+5.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Democratic-held seat, Republicans favored (91%).
Timko is clearly favored to win: Timko wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Dukes (D)
9%
chance of winning
Timko (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+13.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Scott Timko
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Pennsylvania state offices
- +0.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.3Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -7.93 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+19: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 68,340
- People per km²
- 364
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 60%
- White, no degree
- 37%of adults
- White 90%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
42,943 votes · R+29.7✓ Stephenie G. A. Scialabba (R)64.8%
Robert L Vigue (D)35.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
43,522 two-party votes · R+18.5 · R+17.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.3%
Kamala Harris (D)40.7%
2022
33,730 votes · R+24.5✓ Stephenie G A Scialabba (R)62.2%
Robert Vigue (D)37.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
43,519 votes · R+23.3✓ Daryl D Metcalfe (R)61.7%
Daniel B Smith Jr (D)38.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
43,839 two-party votes · R+21.0 · R+25.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.5%
Joe Biden (D)39.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
34,930 two-party votes · R+30.2 · R+32.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)34.9%