Democratic
Pennsylvania › Pennsylvania House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania House District 137
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (69%).
Warren is favored to win: Warren wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Warren (D)
69%
chance of winning
Emrick (R)
31%
- Average margin
- D+3.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (76%).
Warren is favored to win: Warren wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Warren (D)
76%
chance of winning
Emrick (R)
24%
- Average margin
- D+6.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Joe Emrick
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Pennsylvania state offices
- +0.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.3Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.21 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.17 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.17 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 60,090
- People per km²
- 488
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 43%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 5%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
39,654 votes · R+3.3✓ Joseph T. Emrick (R)51.7%
Anna R Thomas (D)48.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
40,231 two-party votes · R+1.0 · D+0.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.5%
Kamala Harris (D)49.5%
2022
30,535 votes · R+2.3✓ Joseph T Emrick (R)51.2%
Anna R Thomas (D)48.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
37,602 votes · R+26.6✓ Joseph T Emrick (R)63.3%
Katelind A Brennan (D)36.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
38,605 two-party votes · D+0.5 · R+4.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.3%
Donald Trump (R)49.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
30,323 two-party votes · R+7.3 · R+9.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.3%