Democratic
Pennsylvania › Pennsylvania House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania House District 28
Shaffer is favored to win: Shaffer wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Ferderber (D)
24%
chance of winning
Shaffer (R)
76%
- Average margin
- R+5.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (42% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Ferderber (D)
42%
chance of winning
Shaffer (R)
58%
- Average margin
- R+2.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Jeremy Shaffer
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Pennsylvania state offices
- +0.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.3Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.97 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.77 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.77 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 68,901
- People per km²
- 302
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 62%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 88%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
40,742 votes · R+14.0✓ Jeremy K Shaffer (R)57.0%
William A Petulla (D)43.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
40,870 two-party votes · R+7.5 · R+6.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.8%
Kamala Harris (D)46.2%
2022
32,808 votes · R+12.0✓ Robert W Mercuri (R)56.0%
Alison Duncan (D)44.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
44,247 votes · R+7.4✓ Robert W Mercuri (R)53.7%
Emily Skopov (D)46.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
43,221 two-party votes · R+8.1 · R+12.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.1%
Joe Biden (D)45.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
35,963 two-party votes · R+18.0 · R+20.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.0%
Also on the ballot in Pennsylvania
Neighboring districts
HD-8Richard E. TeleszAaron Bernstine>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-11—Marci Mustello>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-12Brandon DukesScott TimkoR flipR flip77%Rep.91%Rep. HD-14Bradley Jacob YoungRoman Kozak99%Rep.97%Rep. HD-21Lindsay Powell—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-30Arvind VenkatLibby Blackburn98%Dem.91%Dem. HD-33Mandy SteeleMichael Hammill98%Dem.89%Dem.