Democratic
Pennsylvania › Pennsylvania House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania House District 187
Day is favored to win: Day wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Cuevas (D)
28%
chance of winning
Day (R)
72%
- Average margin
- R+4.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Day is favored to win: Day wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.
Cuevas (D)
39%
chance of winning
Day (R)
61%
- Average margin
- R+2.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Gary Day
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Pennsylvania state offices
- +0.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.3Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.51 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.99 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.99 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 70,680
- People per km²
- 177
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 46%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 77%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 3%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
39,732 votes · R+10.7✓ Gary W Day (R)55.4%
Stefanie Rafes (D)44.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
40,167 two-party votes · R+9.4 · R+7.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.7%
Kamala Harris (D)45.3%
2022
22,990 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ryan Mackenzie (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
37,850 votes · R+23.1✓ Gary Day (R)61.5%
Michael E Blichar Jr (D)38.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
38,927 two-party votes · R+8.2 · R+12.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.1%
Joe Biden (D)45.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
32,217 two-party votes · R+16.4 · R+18.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.8%
Also on the ballot in Pennsylvania
Neighboring districts
HD-122Christian BartulovichDoyle Heffley>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-124Tina M. BurnsJames Barton>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-130Eric BonnettMelissa Brewer98%Rep.98%Rep. HD-131Meriam H. SabihMilou Mackenzie76%Rep.66%Rep. HD-132Michael SchlossbergCaren Lowrey>99%Dem.97%Dem. HD-134Peter SchweyerMiriam Alicia Maldonado>99%Dem.98%Dem. HD-183Deirdre J. KamberZach Mako98%Rep.93%Rep.