Democratic
North Carolina › North Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina House District 46
Jones is very likely to win: Jones wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Newton (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Jones (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+26.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+36 to R+18
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Jones is very likely to win: Jones wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Newton (D)
1%
chance of winning
Jones (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+27.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+41 to R+16
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Brenden Jones
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.07 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -23.81 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -23.81 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+34: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 84,889
- People per km²
- 25
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 13%
- White, no degree
- 46%of adults
- White 50%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 24%
- Other / multiracial 14%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
29,537 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Brenden H. Jones (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
39,735 two-party votes · R+35.0 · R+33.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.5%
Kamala Harris (D)32.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
19,877 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Brenden H Jones (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
57,856 votes · R+21.4✓ Brenden H Jones (R)60.7%
Tim Heath (D)39.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
45,162 two-party votes · R+29.4 · R+34.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.7%
Joe Biden (D)35.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
39,776 two-party votes · R+22.2 · R+24.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.9%
Also on the ballot in North Carolina
Neighboring districts
HD-16Jim HarrisCarson Smith>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-17Dennis BreenFrank Iler98%Rep.96%Rep. HD-22Jimmy MelvinWellie Jackson98%Rep.97%Rep. HD-43Janene AcklesDiane Wheatley82%Rep.74%Rep. HD-45Frances Jackson—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-47Eshonda HooperJohn Lowery98%Rep.93%Rep. HD-48Garland PierceRalph Carter94%Dem.80%Dem.