Democratic
North Carolina › North Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina House District 19
Miller is very likely to win: Miller wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Nasif (D)
2%
chance of winning
Miller (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+15.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+7
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Miller is clearly favored to win: Miller wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Nasif (D)
6%
chance of winning
Miller (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+15.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Charlie Miller
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.99 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.01 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.01 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 97,934
- People per km²
- 77
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 44%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 4%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
67,148 votes · R+22.9✓ Charlie Miller (R)61.5%
Jill Brown (D)38.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
68,108 two-party votes · R+21.0 · R+19.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.5%
Kamala Harris (D)39.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
33,131 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Charlie Miller (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
118,204 votes · R+15.9✓ Charlie Miller (R)58.0%
Marcia Morgan (D)42.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
64,425 two-party votes · R+22.3 · R+26.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.2%
Joe Biden (D)38.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
64,918 two-party votes · R+29.0 · R+31.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.5%